Statistics / Experts

Nobody beats the average

Does the rescue team matter? With at most 25 episodes per specialist, nobody's track record can be told apart from the 46.1% average — and episodes crediting more specialists do no better than episodes crediting one.

Role

The full board — 21 specialists with 5+ episodes

Still-open rate per specialist, whiskers = 95% confidence interval, navy tick = the all-bars average of 46.1%. Of the specialists with 8+ episodes, every interval includes the average.

Derrick Turner — 5 of 683.3% CI 43.6–97.0
Rob Floyd — 5 of 771.4% CI 35.9–91.8
Vic Moea — 5 of 862.5% CI 30.6–86.3
Keven Undergaro — 3 of 560.0% CI 23.1–88.2
Jason Santos — 8 of 1457.1% CI 32.6–78.6
Mia Mastroianni — 13 of 2552.0% CI 33.5–70.0
Brian Duffy — 5 of 1050.0% CI 23.7–76.3
Anthony Lamas — 4 of 944.4% CI 18.9–73.3
Russell Davis — 7 of 1643.8% CI 23.1–66.8
Tiffany Derry — 7 of 1643.8% CI 23.1–66.8
Nancy Hadley — 3 of 742.9% CI 15.8–75.0
Phil Wills — 7 of 1741.2% CI 21.6–64.0
Nick Liberato — 2 of 540.0% CI 11.8–76.9
Tom Bonello — 3 of 837.5% CI 13.7–69.4
Nicole Taffer — 4 of 1136.4% CI 15.2–64.6
Maria Menounos — 2 of 633.3% CI 9.7–70.0
Aaron McCargo Jr. — 2 of 728.6% CI 8.2–64.1
Lisamarie Joyce — 2 of 825.0% CI 7.1–59.1
Michael Tipps — 1 of 520.0% CI 3.6–62.4
Josh Capon — 1 of 520.0% CI 3.6–62.4
Jessie Barnes — 0 of 50.0% CI 0.0–43.4

Jessie Barnes (coral, bottom) is the board's only interval that excludes the average — at the smallest sample on the board. Across 21 people, one marginal exclusion is the expected false-positive profile. Jon Taffer (191 episodes) is excluded as the constant, and narrator P.J. King (136 episodes) is not a rescue specialist.

Every specialist with 2+ episodes

Counted as distinct episodes per person from the episodes' credits. Bars show the still-open rate; the text gives rescues still open / credited, the rate, and its 95% interval.

Mia Mastroianni · Mixology13/25 · 52.0% [33.5–70.0]
Phil Wills · Mixology7/17 · 41.2% [21.6–64.0]
Russell Davis · Mixology7/16 · 43.8% [23.1–66.8]
Tiffany Derry · Chef7/16 · 43.8% [23.1–66.8]
Jason Santos · Chef8/14 · 57.1% [32.6–78.6]
Nicole Taffer · Recon4/11 · 36.4% [15.2–64.6]
Brian Duffy · Chef5/10 · 50.0% [23.7–76.3]
Anthony Lamas · Chef4/9 · 44.4% [18.9–73.3]
Vic Moea · Chef5/8 · 62.5% [30.6–86.3]
Tom Bonello · Specialist3/8 · 37.5% [13.7–69.4]
Lisamarie Joyce · Mixology2/8 · 25.0% [7.1–59.1]
Rob Floyd · Mixology5/7 · 71.4% [35.9–91.8]
Nancy Hadley · Design3/7 · 42.9% [15.8–75.0]
Aaron McCargo Jr. · Bar Cuisine2/7 · 28.6% [8.2–64.1]
Derrick Turner · Mixology5/6 · 83.3% [43.6–97.0]
Maria Menounos · Recon2/6 · 33.3% [9.7–70.0]
Keven Undergaro · Recon3/5 · 60.0% [23.1–88.2]
Nick Liberato · Chef2/5 · 40.0% [11.8–76.9]
Josh Capon · Chef1/5 · 20.0% [3.6–62.4]
Michael Tipps · Mixologist1/5 · 20.0% [3.6–62.4]
Jessie Barnes · Mixology0/5 · 0.0% [0.0–43.4]
Daniel Ponsky · Mixology3/4 · 75.0% [30.1–95.4]
Brad Bohannan · Specialist2/4 · 50.0% [15.0–85.0]
Peter O'Connor · Whiskey2/4 · 50.0% [15.0–85.0]
Danny Trejo · Hospitality3/3 · 100.0% [43.9–100.0]
Nick Ortega · Mixology3/3 · 100.0% [43.9–100.0]
Diana Small · Mixology2/3 · 66.7% [20.8–93.9]
Jennifer Murphy · Chef2/3 · 66.7% [20.8–93.9]
Kevin Bludso · Chef2/3 · 66.7% [20.8–93.9]
Spike Mendelsohn · Chef2/3 · 66.7% [20.8–93.9]
Tatiana Rosana · Chef2/3 · 66.7% [20.8–93.9]
Elayne Duff · Mixology1/3 · 33.3% [6.1–79.2]
Michael Ferraro · Specialist1/3 · 33.3% [6.1–79.2]
Joseph Brooke · Cocktails0/3 · 0.0% [0.0–56.1]
Ryan Scott · Chef0/3 · 0.0% [0.0–56.1]
Chris Oh · Chef2/2 · 100.0% [34.2–100.0]
G.M. Murphy · Specialist2/2 · 100.0% [34.2–100.0]
Mercedes Varnado · Recon2/2 · 100.0% [34.2–100.0]
Alex Goode · Mixology1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Alexander Garganera · Specialist1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Brian Hill · Chef1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Gerry Graham · Mixology1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Jay Klay · Specialist1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Jenny Costa · Smirnoff Mixologist1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Michael W. Downey · Specialist1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Nicole Butler · Specialist1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Tassia Lacerda · Mixology1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Trevor Frye · Mixology1/2 · 50.0% [9.5–90.5]
Bill Rodenhiser · Specialist0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Elayne Duke · Mixology0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Jen Rodenhiser · Specialist0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Jillian Schmitz · Specialist0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Kate Gerwin · Mixology0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Rene Vickery · Specialist0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Samantha Taffer · Recon0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Sarah Colonna · Recon0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Stretch · Sculptor0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]
Tony Gemignani · Specialist0/2 · 0.0% [0.0–65.8]

Bigger team, same result

42.7%Still open · team of 1 or fewer specialists (38 of 89)
44.9%Still open · team of 3+ specialists (35 of 78)

Episodes crediting more specialists do no better than episodes crediting one (Spearman ρ = -0.005 across the 215 episodes with credits). Credits are billing-limited, so treat the counts as noisy — the flatness is the finding.

Records are descriptions, not grades: assignments were never random, and recent rescues have had less time to fail. Back to the overview →